Model check

Is the activity model honest? Calibration skill, reliability and a live hindcast against the observed indices. Back to the dashboard

Calibration on two years of history

Reliability: how often Hp30 actually reached the threshold, by predicted value
Residuals of the fit on the test period

Live hindcast, last 3 days

Kp modeled from NOAA's propagated solar wind versus what was observed.

Modeled Kp against observed Hp30 (GFZ, via iSWA mirror) and NOAA estimated Kp

CME arrival predictions: historical error

From NASA CCMC's CME Scoreboard (observed arrivals since 2023).