{
 "generated": "2026-09-29T08:02:15.027Z",
 "source": {
  "hp30": "https://kp.gfz.de/app/files/Hp30_ap30_complete_series.txt",
  "omni": [
   "https://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/data/omni/high_res_omni/omni_5min2024.asc",
   "https://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/data/omni/high_res_omni/omni_5min2025.asc",
   "https://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/data/omni/high_res_omni/omni_5min2026.asc"
  ],
  "years": 2,
  "windowStart": "2024-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "nSamples": {
   "omni": 184982,
   "hp30": 34463,
   "rows": 32530
  }
 },
 "hp30": {
  "intercept": -0.97344,
  "sqrtCoupling": 0.033527,
  "coupling": -0.0000174776,
  "viscous": 0.0000024814,
  "sigma": 0.7494,
  "n": 32530,
  "fittedOn": "GFZ Hp30 (CC BY 4.0) vs OMNI 5-min at the bow shock nose, OVATION 4-hour weighting; Hp30 = a + d sqrt(coupling) + b coupling + c viscous, robust OLS on all rows; sigma = RMSE on the chronological 20% test split",
  "droppedOutliers": 208
 },
 "hp30_storm": {
  "intercept": 0.03865,
  "sqrtCoupling": 0.038501,
  "coupling": -0.0000464095,
  "viscous": 0.0000010981,
  "n": 4666,
  "from": 3.5,
  "testRows": 472,
  "testBiasGeneral": -0.01259,
  "testRmseGeneral": 0.9195,
  "testBiasBlend": -0.03143,
  "testRmseBlend": 0.895,
  "note": "fit on the intervals where the general fit predicts more than 3.5, where the runtime blends it in over one Kp unit; test scores on those rows of the chronological 20% split"
 },
 "extrapolation": {
  "members": 200,
  "floor": 300,
  "cadenceMin": 5,
  "lagMin": [
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   110,
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  ],
  "terciles": [
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  ],
  "logRatioQuantiles": {
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   },
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    "n": [
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   },
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    "n": [
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   },
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    "n": [
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 },
 "skill": {
  "test": {
   "n": 6506,
   "ours": {
    "n": 6506,
    "rmse": 0.7494,
    "mae": 0.5966,
    "bias": 0.1055,
    "r": 0.805
   },
   "newell2008": {
    "n": 6506,
    "rmse": 0.7715,
    "mae": 0.6198,
    "bias": 0.2646,
    "r": 0.815
   },
   "persistence": {
    "n": 6506,
    "rmse": 0.6222,
    "mae": 0.4595,
    "bias": -0.00005149,
    "r": 0.8761
   },
   "stormRows": 1394,
   "oursOnStorms": {
    "n": 1394,
    "rmse": 0.964,
    "mae": 0.7577,
    "bias": -0.5654,
    "r": 0.6304
   }
  },
  "train": {
   "n": 26024,
   "coef": {
    "intercept": -0.9917404950348807,
    "sqrtCoupling": 0.03677900562780045,
    "coupling": -0.00003386359107287293,
    "viscous": 0.0000023049644007892395
   },
   "dropped": 152
  }
 },
 "blend": {
  "leads": [
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   30,
   60,
   90,
   120
  ],
  "weight": [
   0.65,
   0.45,
   0.4,
   0.4,
   0.4
  ],
  "sigma": [
   0.6002,
   0.7097,
   0.7764,
   0.8355,
   0.8962
  ],
  "modelRmse": [
   0.798,
   0.798,
   0.8452,
   0.9164,
   0.9903
  ],
  "persistenceRmse": [
   0.6568,
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  ],
  "n": [
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   16270,
   16269,
   16269,
   16268
  ],
  "note": "weight = share of the last observed Hp30 in the blend (issue-time age about 15 min); sigma = RMSE of that blend on the Hp30 scale, used as the probability spread; driving measured for leads <= 45 min, frozen at issue time beyond"
 }
}